China can’t be counted on to absorb global crude surplus as Opec+ bumps up production: market watchers

Crude could trade at below US$60 a barrel by end-2025 as the world’s largest oil importer slows down stockpiling

The crude oil market is embracing a rising supply glut that will not be simply resolved by China’s stockpiling, said market watchers at the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference 2025 (APPEC 2025) on Monday (Sep 8).

The world’s largest oil importing country has been absorbing the world’s crude surplus by consistently stockpiling and building up its strategic reserve for energy security. However, a potentially slowing pace of its inventory-building foreshadows a plunge in crude price as the supply glut grows.

The oversupply situation of crude could worsen as China’s commercial crude demand is expected to peak in these two years, noted Han Guangzhong, vice-president CNOOC Energy Economics Institutes at a panel discussion.