OPEC sees balanced oil market in 2026, moves further away from deficit projection

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) -World oil supply is expected to match demand next year in ​a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group's production ‌increases, an OPEC report showed on Wednesday, marking a further shift ‌from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, has raised its output targets by around ⁠2.9 million ‌barrels per day - or around 2.7% of global supply - since April.

It ‍plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid widespread predictions of an oversupply.

In a monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC ​said the world economy's growth trend remained firm.

While demand ‌is seen as steady, OPEC said in the report that OPEC+ in October cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd, despite the group's output hike agreement for the month, led by a drop in ⁠Kazakhstan.

Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at ​43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies ​that the world market will see a marginal surplus of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps ‍pumping at October'⁠s rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.

Last month's report had projected a deficit ⁠of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall ‌of 700,000 bpd.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler,‌ editing by Jane Merriman)